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Value-ish
“Value investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator.” —Seth Klarman
The stock market and economic data released last week gave both the bulls and the bears something to hang onto.
The S&P 500 was down a bit. The Nasdaq was up a bit.
Retail sales numbers came in strong, which can satisfy both the bulls and the bears. The bulls will say it’s a sign of a strong economy. The bears will say it’s a sign that the Fed will now need to do more to cool the economy and keep inflation from picking back up again.
And speaking of inflation…. The producer price index numbers that were released were higher than expected, once again pointing the bears to the fact that we need higher rates and a slower economy to beat inflation (and, thus, likely lower stock prices). The bulls will say that, while the number was above expectations, we’re still trending in the correct (lower) direction on the inflation front.
What side should you take? Should you be bullish or bearish? Well, you can be neither. You can be what investor Seth Klarman has called value-ish:
“Many people believe that investors must make the macro decision to be either bullish or bearish. Our preference is to be agnostic, objectively finding absolute bargains, and in their absence, holding cash. In short, we are neither bullish nor bearish. We are value-ish.”
Remember the market saying that both bulls and bears can make money, but pigs get slaughtered. So don’t be too greedy. Try and acquire more value than you are paying for and, if you can’t find it, be patient. In short, be value-ish.
“The number one idea is to view a stock as an ownership of the business and to judge the staying quality of the business in terms of its competitive advantage. Look for more value in terms of discounted future cash flow than you are paying for. Move only when you have an advantage.” —Charlie Munger
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