Brains and Knowledge
“The genuine investor in common stocks does not need a great equipment of brains and knowledge, but he does need some unusual qualities of character.” —Benjamin Graham
Gains on Friday led the S&P 500 and Dow to another record high, and sent the Nasdaq to within 1% of its record high. All three indices gained just shy of 1% for the week.
During the last thirty years, we’ve seen several major bubbles and busts, yet the S&P 500 has compounded at about 10.8% during that span. If you were disciplined and kept saving and investing, you did very well just buying the market.
There were stocks that did much better than the market and stocks that did much worse. But making double-digit returns without having to do any analysis has been a significant advantage for those who diversified widely and had the fortitude to keep investing and not stray from their plan—even as there were periods when their wealth may have declined by 30% or more during certain stretches of time.
Of course, in a series of data, starting and ending points matter—in this case, especially the ending point. The current high valuations tend to be associated with 10-year nominal returns going forward somewhere between slightly negative per year and positive 3% per year.
That’s not a forecast—just an observation about the past that may or may not be relevant to the future.
But we will forecast that investors who possess discipline, patience, and realism will tend to do better over the long run than those who don’t.
“The most important thing in investments is not having a high IQ, thank God. I mean, the important thing is realism and discipline. And you don’t need to be extraordinarily bright to do well in investments, if you are realistic and disciplined.” —Warren Buffett
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