This Week’s Newsletter is Sponsored By: Notes Live
This week, Fresh Vine Wine Inc. held a fireside chat with JW Roth, the CEO of Notes Live.
Click here to watch the replay of the Fireside Chat!
Merger Partner Notes Live Announces Acts Include OneRepublic, Dierks Bentley, Robert Plant/Alison Krauss, Beach Boys and Steve Miller Band.
“Experience the magic of Notes Live and invest in a world where unforgettable entertainment and lucrative opportunities come together in perfect harmony. Notes Live is a music and entertainment lover’s dream. As one of the fastest-growing entertainment and hospitality companies in the United States, we have created a new category for investors where you can own part of the world’s most luxurious outdoor music venues and earn a return from the profits they generate.
Seeing the Future
“It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know exactly what’s going on.” —Amos Tversky
Stock markets kept moving higher, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing the week at record highs. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.95%, while the Nasdaq rose 1.74%.
It’s hard to see the future. Amateurs don’t seem to do it well. And the so-called experts often seem to do it worse.
Even those with technological knowledge about technical things often get it wrong. Last week, Ben Thompson wrote about when employees at Microsoft, in 2010, thought they had built a product to destroy the iPhone. Quoting an article from that year:
Microsoft workers celebrated the release to manufacturing of Windows Phone 7 by parading through their Redmond campus on Friday with iPhone and BlackBerry hearses. Employees dressed up in fancy dress and also modified cars to include Windows Phone branding. Aside from the crazy outfits the workers made fake hearses for giant BlackBerry and iPhone devices. Employees cheekily claimed they had buried the competition with Windows Phone 7.
In investing, you make the most money by seeing the future before others. But thinking you see the future before others and being wrong is how you lose the most money—unless you focus on the downside first and only bet big when the odds are clearly on your side.
No one can predict everything, but sometimes you can predict something. And sometimes, you don’t have to predict or attempt to see the future at all—because you’ve done the work to minimize the loss if you’re wrong.
“If you can protect downside, you don’t need to figure out upside. In fact, those will give you the best upside because markets hate them till the upside is clearly visible.” —Mohnish Pabrai
“Minimizing downside risk is the first step toward being a successful investor. As Warren Buffett succinctly puts it: Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.” —Mohnish Pabrai
Tweets of the Week
In Case You Missed it…
A Warren Buffett Protégée Is on the Hunt for Small Companies. She Now Has Millions More to Spend.
Warren Buffett’s Margin of Safety I TCAF 132 [w/ Larry Cunningham] (video)
Building a $100M Gasoline Empire - Chris Hellgeth aka Gas Biz Guy - Owner of Vi-Mac (video)
Invest Like the Best Podcast: Ali Hamed - Building an Investment Firm
Odd Lots Podcast: How the Rise of ‘Pod Shops’ Is Reshaping the Way Markets Trade
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