ON MIKE’S MIND:
This weekend, we celebrate Independence. But it’s worth pausing to ask: what exactly do we mean by that word today?
In 1776, "independence" meant freedom from a distant monarch—an assertion that the people, not a royal authority across the ocean, had the right to govern.
Over the centuries, Independence has come to mean more the right of states to define their own values. The right of individuals to speak their minds. The right to build a life—and a business—not under the capricious thumb of the state, but through grit, risk, and creativity.
Our parents and grandparents fought wars to preserve that freedom from authoritarian rule. And now, in more subtle ways, that battle is back.
If we no longer protect privacy, financial sovereignty, or the right to speak and act freely within the law based on Western Values — if we trade self-determination for submission, independence for surveillance, or our values for values incompatible with the freedoms our fathers fought to establish and defend—then the word “independence” becomes a hollow echo.
At The Co/Investor Club, we believe in investing not just in capital—but in principle. In supporting people and businesses who are building freely, thinking independently, and pushing back against creeping control.
Because the Fourth of July is more than fireworks and flags. It’s a call to remember—and defend—the idea that made this country different in the first place.
Today, on a personal note, I’d like to honor my own father, born on the 4th of July himself, and all our fathers and mothers who have helped secure this magnficent country of ours. That’s him, to the left of the lady.
Love, you Dad.
With respect and resolve,
Mike and The Co/Investor Club Team
Investing Together. Building Legacy.
******
THE MARKETS
There was a big push in Small Cap Value Stocks this week, spurred on by the
S&P 500: +1.46%, DJI: +0.98%, NASDAQ Composite: +1.96%
Markets continue to bet on the rate cut this year
The 2-year fell 2 basis points to 3.88, while the 10-year fell 3 basis points to 4.33
It seems as though Bitcoin is waiting for a new shakeup to burst forward once more
BTC: -0.02%, ETH: +2.45%, XRP: +3.57%
WISE WORDS
“I regard it as very unfair, but capitalism without failure is like religion without hell.”
- Charlie Munger
WATCH OUR FRIENDS AT “GOING PUBLIC”
…
It’s time!
In case you’ve missed it, Season 3 of "Going Public" on X is a groundbreaking reality series that follows entrepreneurs as they navigate the high-stakes world of launching an initial public offering (IPO).
Blending business drama with personal stories, you’ll see raw ambition, financial strategy, and market mayhem in real-time.
And it’s produced by our friend Darren Marble of Issuance — in which we are investors.
The real kicker - this week, investors all over the country are investing in the companies they have been following week after week.
Nutcase. Employer.com. OmnicoGolf.
Let us know what you think of them.
Catch up with the action here
Reflections on the Week
As we cross into the second half of 2025, private equity is showing signs of both strength and strain. The early-year optimism, fueled by record-setting IPOs and hopes for rate cuts, has been overshadowed by escalating trade tensions and inconsistent policy signals. Markets have wobbled, capital has gotten more cautious, and yet, private equity continues to maneuver with purpose.
One of the standout themes is the rise and consolidation of private debt. The top 10 fund managers now control over 32% of all global private debt fundraising, on pace to hit a decade high of 33% by year-end.
Giants like Ares and Brookfield/Oaktree have closed historic-sized vehicles, helping institutional investors lean into scale over experimentation. It’s a clear vote of confidence in established players, but it also highlights the shrinking space for emerging managers and specialized funds, which often offer higher risk-adjusted returns.
PE-backed IPOs are another bright spot. Despite choppy markets, these deals have captured a record 56.1% of U.S. IPO capital so far this year. These companies bring operational maturity, steady cash flow, and more measured growth compared to venture-backed startups, a compelling narrative in a high-volatility world. But this boom may not last if broader IPO activity slows under renewed economic pressure.
That pressure is building at the portfolio level. More than half of all active PE funds are now six years or older, with nearly 3,500 sitting at the doorstep of their maturity phase. Known as the “maturity wall,” this growing backlog of aging funds reflects a tough exit environment, where many managers are struggling to wind down investments on time. Exit activity remains sluggish, and the risk of overextended fund lifecycles is rising, especially for vintages that raised capital during the 2019–2021 boom years.
This maturity crunch has begun to bleed into fundraising. After years of record activity, 2025 is shaping up to be the weakest year since 2020.
LPs are becoming more selective, favoring larger, more diversified managers while pausing new commitments. While marquee funds from Blackstone and Thoma Bravo have hit big closings, they represent the exception, not the rule. Unless exits improve and distributions resume, many investors are simply waiting on the sidelines.
Yet, not all is gloom. Private equity still holds nearly $1.5 trillion in dry powder across equity and debt strategies. GPs have tools at their disposal, NAV loans, continuation funds, and strategic secondaries, to stay flexible. And if trade tensions cool or rate cuts re-enter the picture, capital deployment could accelerate fast. What we’re witnessing isn’t a retreat, but a recalibration.
The Savvy Investor…
Royce Investment Partner’s Small Cap Recap
Hedge Funds moving in on US Banks
Publisher’s Note:
While Mike is honoring his Pops and his role in defending in America, I’m thinking about my son who is building America.
Both my dad and my grandfather fought in the World Wars and I’m glad my sons have the freedom - as a result - to follow their passions - building community, making music and in the case of my middle son, working at a little company called META.
I’m thinking about him because Meta just spent $500 MILLION dollars hiring top-tier AI brainiacs from the competition.
Think about that - they could have given every American citizen a million bucks - and still had enough for hot dogs and beer at the META July 4th picnic.
That number should tell you a few things:
META means business.
AI is even more valuable than you or I even imagined.
Zuck has done ok for himself.
And he may be the businessman visionary of our time.
The question remains - with the meteoric rise of tech companies and the knowledge they have of our every move…
What is the relationship between their reach and power…
And, yup, our privacy and independence?
This one, my friends, will continue to be one of the central economic and political questions of our time.
Have a great weekend,
Adam
Publisher, The Co/Investor Club
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